Royal Dress, Bermuda Longtail and Sparks Fly have all been attracting money this morning, probably because all have soft-ground experience. Royal Dress boasts first-time up wins in each of the last two seasons, one on soft ground and the other on heavy, while Sparks Fly won two Listed events on heavy ground last autumn. This is a very open contest to kick off the card, though, and Skellet – top of the Timeform ratings – and SIRONA, a winner on soft at Newmarket last September, also come into the reckoning. Ryan Moore was aboard Sirona for that win, he is back in her saddle today and she was not far behind a very useful opponent in Crimson Advocate at Goodwood on her seasonal debut, so odds of around 7-1 could prove to be generous.
SELECTION: SIRONA
Bermuda Longtail (11-2 to 9-2 ) has been the best-backed on Oddschecker today, with 20% of stakes wagered. The biggest bet taken for the race has also been for Bermuda Longtail.
Trainer Francis Henri Graffard arrives Epsom. Photograph: Dylan Martinez/Reuters
If you want to follow where the money is going here are the market movers courtesy of Oddschecker:
1.35pm Royal Playwright 8-1 to 9-2 3.30pm Lambourn 12-1 to 7-1 5.40pm Strike Red 9-1 to 5-1
The bookies at the track are clearly not busy yet. Photograph: George Tewkesbury/Shutterstock
If you’re having a flutter in the other races today at Epsom please note these horses won’t be turning up. This is your current list of non-runners:
He’s not sure but she’s taking no chances. Photograph: Adam Davy/PA
There’s been a lot of talk (some of it from yours truly) about whether jockeys will take their runners in the Derby to the nearside as they tend to do when the ground is soft at Epsom. That will be such a temptation if there is significant rain by the time the Derby gets underway. Derby historian Michael Church says it’s not happened since 1919 and Derby-winning jockey-turned-pundit Martin Dwyer told the Racing Post: “The Derby is a special race and it’s a big gamble to take if you’re going to do that. I’d be very doubtful …. the main reason is they take the rail away [to its innermost line] and it’s always fresh ground. Once they take the rail in the fresh ground cancels out the slight advantage of coming up the hill to race on quicker ground.”
Clerk of the course Andrew Cooper did tell ITV Racing this morning that the going currently is virtually even across the track with the middle being slightly faster so there is definitely no advantage as it stands.
A racegoer shelters from a rain shower ahead of the Derby at Epsom. Photograph: John Walton/PA
The big question everyone is asking is if, and when, it’s going to start raining at Epsom. Our correspondent Greg Wood is there and walking the track and his social media pic is of a brooding sky … watch this space.
Racegoers gather under cloudy skies on Derby day at Epsom. Photograph: Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images
Preamble
Greg Wood
Good morning from an overcast but, for the moment at least, dry Epsom racecourse, where after three months of scarcely any rainfall at all, as much as 10mm is forecast to arrive before the Derby’s scheduled off-time at 3.30pm.
That would be more than enough to transform the shape and likely outcome of today’s Classic, with Ruling Court, the 2,000 Guineas winner, a possible non-runner if it gets really soft, and various outsiders coming into the reckoning.
The 9.30am going bulletin from the track this morning reported that the going had actually quickened slightly overnight after 2.2mm in all, to good, good to soft in places.
A yellow weather warning for thunderstorms is in place from 9am to 6pm, however, and the concern is that if a storm does hit the track, several millimetres of rain could hit the track in a very short space of time. There is some leeway built in to schedule, with a 45-minute gap between the Derby and the subsequent raced at 4.15, which would allow for a brief postponement if a storm is expected to blow over, but some nervy hours lie ahead for Jim Allen, Epsom’s new general manager, and his team.
Hopefully, of course, it won’t come to that, and while the forecast may affect the walk-up audience who can watch the race for free on the Hill, the Derby itself promises to be a compelling renewal of the premier Classic, with 19 runners, the biggest field since Kris Kin’s year in 2003, due to go to post.
The early betting news is that Ruling Court, unsurprisingly, is on the drift, all the way out to 7-1 in fact from around 9-2 on Friday afternoon, while Delacroix, the winner of Leopardstown’s Derby Trial, is firming up at the top of the market at 5-2. Pride Of Arras, the Dante Stakes winner, is a 9-2 chance, with Lambourn and The Lion In Winter, stable companions of Delacroix at the Aidan O’Brien yard, both on 8-1. The former, though, is on the way in, thanks to a strong-staying win in the Chester Vase, while The Lion In Winter is drifting.
A fascinating and dramatic afternoon lies ahead, and you can, as ever, follow all the action here on the blog as it happens.
