The number of newborns in Japan is decreasing faster than projected, with the number of annual births falling to a record low last year, according to government data released Wednesday.

The Health Ministry said 686,061 babies were born in Japan in 2024, a drop of 5.7 per cent from the previous year and the first time the number of newborns has fallen below 700,000 since records began in 1899.

The decline comes about 15 years faster than the government's prediction. Last year's figure is about one-quarter of the peak of 2.7 million births in 1949 during the postwar baby boom.

The data in a country with a rapidly aging and shrinking population adds to concern about the sustainability of the economy and national security at a time the government seeks to increase defence spending.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has described the situation as "a silent emergency" and promised to promote a more flexible working environment and other measures that would help married couples balance work and parenting, especially in rural areas, where family values tend to be more conservative and harder on women.

A global problem

Japan is far from alone.

Canada recorded its lowest-ever fertility rate for the second year in a row in 2023, according to Statistics Canada data released last fall, at 1.26 children born per woman. It joined the ranks of "lowest-low" fertility countries, including South Korea, Spain, Italy and Japan.

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For the second year in a row, Statistics Canada says the country recorded its lowest-ever fertility rate. We break down the stats, including which province is the lowest.

Experts have linked a range of factors with reproductive decision-making, including the rising cost of living, eco-anxiety and shifting social norms around family size. More people are also delaying parenthood until later in life, which can shorten their reproductive window.

In the United States, births and birth rates have been falling for years. They dropped most years after the 2008-09 recession, aside from a 2014 uptick.

The Trump administration is reportedly mulling incentives that could include a $5,000 US "baby bonus," reserving scholarship placements for applicants who are married or have children, and motherhood medals for women who have six or more children, according to multiple media outlets.

South Korea has implemented various measures to encourage young people to get married and have children, including tax cuts and subsidies, but it also expanded parental leave, increased paternity leave and added more flexible work schedules for parents. Last year, its fertility rate rose for the first time in nine years, from 0.72 to 0.75.

Population projected to fall

The Health Ministry's latest data showed that Japan's fertility rate — the average number of babies a woman is expected to have in her lifetime — also fell to a new low of 1.15 in 2024, from 1.2 a year earlier.

Marriage was up slightly, to 485,063 couples, but the downtrend since the 1970s remains unchanged.

Experts say the government measures have not addressed a growing number of young people reluctant to marry, while focusing largely on couples already married and planning to have a family, or those who already have children.

The younger generation is increasingly reluctant to marry or have children due to bleak job prospects, a high cost of living and a gender-biased corporate culture that adds an extra burden on women and working mothers, experts say.

A growing number of women also cite pressure to change their surnames to that of their husband as part of their reluctance to marry. Under civil law, couples must choose either surname to legally marry, a rule that traditionally has caused women to abandon their maiden names.

Japan's population of about 124 million people is projected to fall to 87 million by 2070, when 40 per cent of the population will be over 65.