Merz hails “a historic election evening,” as he claims the victory in this election.

He says he knows the responsibility and the scale of the task ahead, and acknowledges at times “very tough” election campaign, touching on issues of economic policy, migration, foreign and security policy.

But he says he is confident of being able “to create a government capable of acting in Germany’s interest” soon, as he tells party faithful that “the world out there is not waiting for us and for lengthy negotiations.”

SPD general secretary Matthias Miersch has been speaking to the media in the last few minutes.

He describes the projected result, the party’s worst in a federal election, as a “historic defeat,” admitting it is “a very bitter evening.”

“The Union has won the election, the new chancellor will be called Friedrich Merz,” said the general secretary of the Christian Democratic Union, Carsten Linnemann, said after exit polls put the party firmly in first place after today’s election, just short of its target of 30%.

The co-leader of the Alternative für Deutschland, Alice Weidel, said the party had become “the second strongest force” and was now “firmly anchored” in the German mainstream.

She suggested she would be open to discussing a role in the next government. “We extend our hand to offer cooperation with the CDU. Otherwise change won’t be possible in Germany,” she said.

During the campaign, the Conservative parties repeatedly dismissed any prospect of a coalition with the far right.

• The conservative CDU/CSU party is expected to be the largest party in the next German parliament, at about 29% of the vote, with Friedrich Merz in pole position to be Germany’s next chancellor.

• The far-right Alternative für Deutschland is expected to come second, with the record-high 20% of the vote, almost doubling its share in 2021 (10.4%).

• The ruling Social Democratic party is expected to come third at about 16%, its worst result in a federal election.

• Both the liberal FDP and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance are very close to the 5% electoral threshold.

CDU/CSU 28.5%
AfD 20%
SPD 16.5%
Greens 12%
The Left 9%
BSW 5%
FDP 5%

(via ZDF)

CDU/CSU 29%
AfD 19.5%
SPD 16%
Greens 13.5%
The Left 8.5%
FDP 4.9%
BSW 4.7%

(via ARD1)

1. Can the CDU/CSU go above 30% to give it a chance of governing in a two-party coalition?

2. Is the AfD’s result in line with pre-election polls, at around 20-21%, or higher?

3. How many parties will be in the next parliament? The more are in, the more difficult any coalition talks will be.

Five minutes to go.

Eight minutes to go.

Let’s take a quick look at what’s going on in party HQs.