Morning opening: The Trump effect
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Greenlanders could soon vote in a referendum on independence from Denmark under plans proposed by the ruling party, Siumut.
You never expected to be this invested in the domestic politics of Greenland, right? Me neither. But that’s the Trump effect. We better get used to it.
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Earlier this week, the Greenlandic parliament called a snap election for 11 March, partially in response to growing rhetoric about US aspirations to control the area by US president Donald Trump (very much against their will).
Last night, the leader of the ruling party there said that if they get re-elected, they will accelerate the independence process by triggering Section 21 of the Greenland Self-Government Act to negotiate the terms of a future relationship and, crucially, hold an independence referendum within the next parliament.
Party leader Erik Jensen admitted in media interviews that Trump’s intervention indirectly contributed to this decision, and Siumut’s political spokesperson Doris Jakobsen Jensen went further and criticised the Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen for her “solo run” in Europe in response to Trump’s words, allegedly ignoring Greenland’s will.
However, there will be plenty of practical questions about how any future arrangement would look, which will probably complicate the process. For example, under the current arrangement, Denmark pays the territory a 4.3 billion kroner (£484m or €580m) grant.
A recent poll for Berlingske and Greenlandic newspaper Sermitsiaq showed that most Greenlanders expect this to continue even after independence. But would Denmark agree? Her office declined to comment “out of respect for the electoral process.” If that money is not there, will Greenlanders still want independence now? Are they ready, or need more time?
(If you are getting Brexit flashbacks reading this introduction, I can’t even blame you. At least they don’t put it on the side of a bus, yet.)
However, the Trump effect also exists in Denmark.
Danish daily Berlingske is reporting this morning about speculations that Frederiksen – whose Social Democrats gained over 3 points in polls since Trump came into office on the back of her diplomatic offensive – could also be tempted to call a snap election, bringing them forward from late 2026 to bank another term amid the swirling uncertainty about life under Trump.
I think we can confidently say that this theme of how Trump’s politics influences – or, depending on your politics, interferes with – domestic decisions will continue throughout 2025: from elections in Germany, where his close aide Elon Musk directly supports the far-right Alternative für Deutschland, through presidential elections in the likes of Romania and Poland, and beyond.
“May you live in interesting times,” eh?
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It’s Friday, 7 February 2025, and this is Europe live. It’s Jakub Krupa here.
Good morning.