A few years ago, getting a visa to visit China was a “ball ache”, says Kate Murray. The Australian was going for a four-day trade show, but the visa required a formal invitation from the organisers and what felt like “a thousand forms”.

“They wanted so many details about your life and personal life,” she tells the Guardian. “The paperwork was bonkers.”

But were she to go back again now, Murray could just jump on the plane. Australians are among citizens of almost 40 countries for which China now waives visas for business, tourism or family visits for up to four weeks.

It’s a dramatic change in Beijing’s approach to foreign visitors, but one that analysts say is being driven by economic need and strategic soft diplomacy. Under the authoritarian rule of Xi Jinping, China is growing more politically isolated from the west. But when it comes to being a holiday destination? The country has never been more open.

Before the pandemic, China allowed visa-free entry to people from just three countries – Singapore, Brunei and Japan. Now, it’s 38, with pledges to grow the list. There are also a range of other offerings, including transit visas on arrival for people from 54 countries to explore a growing number of specific cities for between three and 10 days, and government-driven campaigns to simplify in-country experiences like paying with non-local cards or cash easier.

“‘On-a-whim travel’ to China is becoming a reality,” a ministry of foreign affairs spokesman declared in 2023.

Between 2023 and 2024 the number of foreign visits increased by about 83% to 64.88m, including 20.11m using visa-free entry – more than double the previous year, according to China’s national immigration administration. State media and authorities link the increases specifically to the visa waivers.

“China is playing a very smart game to allow foreigners to visit China more conveniently,,” says Prof Songshan Huang, head of the centre for tourism research at Australia’s Edith Cowan University.

“There is a public diplomacy intention behind this. And the Chinese economy is slowing down. Foreign visitors spending money in China represents a net input into the Chinese economic system.”

But despite global tourism making a near full recovery in 2024 and the Asia region returning to 85%, according to the UN, visitor numbers to China are still only about two-thirds of pre-pandemic levels. And most of the visitors appear to be coming from nearby countries or places that have friendlier ties with Beijing.

A recent Bloomberg analysis suggested the biggest increases in arrivals were from countries like Malaysia and Thailand, while the number of visitors from Germany, France and Italy had dropped by around a third. Available data about foreign visitors to Beijing from 2019 to 2024 showed rises of 100-300% among Vietnamese, Mongolians, Russians and Malaysians but an 18% fall in foreign visitors overall, with some of the biggest declines in visitors from the US, Australia, Japan and South Korea.

Huang notes one explanation is that it’s obviously cheaper to fly from nearby countries. There are also far fewer flights coming in from further afield, in part because many western airlines are restricted from flying through Russian airspace. Flights in and out of China remain at about 74% of pre-pandemic levels, Bloomberg reported – and some airlines including Virgin Atlantic, British Airways and Qantas have either cancelled routes or left the market completely. A US freeze on return flights beginning in China has also not been fully lifted.

But geopolitics also likely plays a role. A 2023 Pew Research Centre survey found unfavourable opinions of China in developed nations were near or at historic highs. It’s something Beijing is actively trying to counter with its visa overhaul, says Huang.

“They want people to experience China firsthand – that is the public diplomacy intention,” he says. “Visitors will understand China better and form a more favourable image. Although this may not change the geopolitical situation, [they’re thinking] you can attract the grassroots people.”

For some there are safety concerns. A spate of attacks and online hostility against Japanese people in China prompted Tokyo to warn citizens against travelling there, or speaking Japanese loudly if they do. The UK, US, Canadian and Australian governments all still urge their citizens to exercise a high degree of caution in China, citing the risks of arbitrary detention, exit bans and harsh enforcement of local laws, including those relating to national security.

In recent years those four governments have all been in serious disputes or confrontations with Beijing. Of the four, only Australia’s citizens have so far been given lengthy visa-free entry – announced in June and extended in December – amid concerted efforts by both governments to “reset” the relationship. Notably, Australia did not introduce reciprocal waivers.

In online forums, Canadian travellers linked their ongoing exclusion to China-Canada political tensions, which plummeted over the 2018 arrest of Chinese Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou and China’s retaliatory arrest of two Canadian citizens living in China. The two Michaels, as they became known, were detained for more than 1,000 days. While most commenters were disappointed they still needed visas, there was still lingering fear.

“Since the two Michaels / Huawei incident and tuning in more to political news from there, you couldn’t get me to go if you paid me,” one Canadian traveller said on Reddit.

This week China’s State Council announced it would expand the visa-free entry privileges, both in the number of eligible countries and the length of time permitted to stay, “to foster new growth points in the culture and tourism sector and boost related consumption”. But it didn’t say which countries.

“I can only guess there’s a certain level of political considerations with other countries,” says Huang. He doesn’t think the UK or US are going to be on the list.

“I think it’s very unlikely, especially the US now Trump is returning. The US is treating China as a foe. If there is a trade war, China won’t be so generous.”

Murray, meanwhile, hopes to make another trip this year, this time without the tedious paperwork.

“I did love China,” she says. “Being able to just walk on in is a wild change.”