Rachel Reeves aims to find £40bn in tax rises and spending cuts in budget
Here is Eleni Courea’s story on the Treasury wanting to announce tax rises and spending cuts worth £40bn in the budget.
Keir Starmer to face PMQs as Labour aims to find £40bn in tax rises and spending cuts – UK politics live | PoliticsRachel Reeves aims to find £40bn in tax rises and spending cuts in budgetHere is Eleni Courea’s story on the Treasury wanting to announce tax rises and spending cuts worth £40bn in the budget. Key events Chagossians protest that UK's deal with Mauritius won't give them right to return to Diego GarciaHaroon Siddique A group representing more than 300 Chagossians has expressed concern that the deal for the UK to hand back its last African colony to Mauritius does not include a right to return to the island of Diego Garcia. The deal struck earlier this month, which followed years of bitter dispute and court rulings rejecting UK sovereignty over the Chagos Islands, allowed for resettlement, except to Diego Garcia, which is home to a joint UK-US military base and will remain under UK control. The Chagos Refugees Group, based in Mauritius, said that, at its annual general meeting on 13 October, members unanimously expressed concern that, by not allowing a right of return to the largest of the islands, the agreement disregards the full human rights of Chagossians from the island where most trace their ancestry. In a letter to the British high commissioner in Mauritius, Charlotte Pierre, the Chagos Refugee Group’s president, Olivier Bancoult, said:
When the agreement was struck, there was a suggestion that Chagossians from Diego Garcia could be prioritised for jobs there. The letter also calls for Chagossians to be involved in the negotiation process to ensure that Chagossians’ rights and interests are fully safeguarded,”, having previously been excluded, and for “a comprehensive support package for Chagossians born in Chagos and their descendants, including a lifetime pension for those born in Chagos”. Chagossians were expelled from their homes in the 1960s and 70s in what has been described as a crime against humanity and one of the most shameful episodes of postwar colonialism, to make way for the base on Diego Garcia. Under the deal, base operations on the island will remain under UK control into the next century – initially for 99 years with the UK having a right to extend. Badenoch suggests she does not want Boris Johnson back as MP, saying she wants to draw line under last 14 yearsKemi Badenoch, the bookmakers’ favourite in the Conservative leadership contest, has not been doing many broadcast interviews, but she has given an interview published today in the Daily Telegraph. Here are the main lines.
Many Tories assume that whoever wins the contest this autum will be replaced after about two years because they are not likely to generate an electoral recovery and because MPs will want to try someone else.
Rachel Reeves aims to find £40bn in tax rises and spending cuts in budgetHere is Eleni Courea’s story on the Treasury wanting to announce tax rises and spending cuts worth £40bn in the budget. Treasury minister Darren Jones warns of 'hard' choices in budget, but says change will bring 'better public services'Darren Jones, the chief secretary to the Treasury, has described today’s fall in inflation (see 9.36am) as “welcome news”. But, in interviews, he also warned there would be “hard” choices in the budget. Asked whether he could rule out real-terms spending cuts for crucial public services, Jones replied:
UK inflation falls below 2% for first time in three and a half yearsInflation in the UK has fallen to its lowest level in three and a half years, giving a pre-budget boost to Rachel Reeves as expectations grow for the Bank of England to cut interest rates. Richard Partington has the story here. Ben Zaranko, an economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, is complaining about the use of the term “black hole” in budget commentary. He posted this on social media.
Starmer to face PMQs as reports claim Treasury must fill ‘£40bn funding gap’ in budgetGood morning. Governments engage in expectation management, and the latest example is on the front page of the Financial Times this morning, where there is a story saying Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has identified a “£40bn funding gap” as she prepares the budget, which is happening a fortnight today. In their story George Parker and Sam Fleming report:
The FT also points out that Reeves told cabinet colleagues yesterday the budget would require “difficult decisions on spending, welfare, and tax”. A “funding gap” is what is otherwise described as a black hole in the accounts, and it can be hard to keep track of what the best black hole estimate is because the figures keep changing. Here is a quick recap. The £22bn black hole: In a statement to MPs in July, Reeves said the Treasury had identified a £22bn gap (difference between the amount the government would have to spend, and the amount actually set aside for spending) in the in-year accounts (ie, for for the 2024-25 budget). The £100bn black hole: At the time Reeves present the £22bn as principally a problem for the current financial year. But, as Pippa Crerar reports today, she is now telling colleagues that the £22bn gap applies in years going ahead, which adds up to a £100bn black hole over the next five years. The up to £20bn future black hole generated by unrealistically low spending allocations for the years ahead: During the election campaign the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), and other thinktanks, repeatedly warned that the pending figures set by the Tories for the next five years were implausibly low, and that in practice governments would have to spend between £10bn and £20bn a year more to stop public services collapsing. This black hole is in addition to the £22bn 2024-25 one identified by Reeves. In an interview with the Today programme this morning, asked about the Treasury’s new £40bn funding gap figure (which government sources have confirmed to the BBC), Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, did not dispute the figure. He said that a “significant amount of additional tax” would be needed, but he said he did not expect taxes to rise by £40bn a year. He said:
Figures like the £40bn one don’t end up in the FT, and on the BBC, by accident, and at this stage in the budget cycle most government budget-related communication is best understood as expectation management. But expectation management can mean two things. It can mean exaggerating how bad things are likely to be, so that on the day voters are pleasantly surprised. But it can just mean dripping out difficult news very slowly, so that when it finally does get confirmed and announced, it is not as much as a shock as it might have been. It is hard to be sure, but what the Treasury is up to now is probably for of the latter than the former. Here is the agenda for the day. 10.30am: Robert Jenrick, one of the two Tory leadership candidates still in the contest, is giving a speech on the economy. Noon: Keir Starmer faces Rishi Sunak at PMQs. After 12.30pm: MPs debate a Lib Dem opposition day motion calling for various measures to end the carer’s allowance scandal, including writing off existing overpayments. If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line (BTL) or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word. If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. I’m still using X and I’ll see something addressed to @AndrewSparrow very quickly. I’m also trying Bluesky (@andrewsparrowgdn) and Threads (@andrewsparrowtheguardian). I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos (no error is too small to correct). And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog. Source link Posted: 2024-10-16 10:33:35 |
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