Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

How strongly, or weakly, was the UK economy growing at the end of Rishi Sunak’s premiership?

We’ll find out shortly, when GDP data for June – and for the second quarter of 2024 – are released.

City economists predict the UK posted a quarter of solid growth. GDP is forecast to have grown by 0.6% in April-June, which would be a slight slowdown on the 0.7% recorded in January-March.

But in June alone, the economy may have stalled – with no growth forecast.

Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, says the service sector was driving activity in the last quarter:

On our calculations, the services economy will likely bounce up by 0.7% q-o-q – despite expected contractions in both the production and construction sectors over the same quarter.

On the expenditure side, we expect government spending, business investment, inventories, and net acquisitions to provide the bulk of the lift to quarterly GDP.

The strength – or otherwise – of the UK economy will also influence how soon the Bank of England feels confident to cut interest rates again, after inflation rose by less than expected in July:

The agenda

• 7am BST: UK GDP report for June

• 7am BST: UK trade report for June

• 7am BST: UK GDP report for Q2 2024

• 9am BST: Norwegian central bank interest rate decision

• 9.30am BST: UK labour productivity statistics

• 1.30pm BST: US weekly jobless claims

• 1.30pm BST: US retail sales for July