New 2024 rule changes introduced in January could have “unintended consequences” on the car market, according to an expert.  

Philip Nothard, insight director at Cox Automotive has suggested the Government’s Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate may lead to a drop in supply of new cars. 

The ZEV mandate came into effect at the start of 2024 and sets strict rules on how many electric cars manufacturers must produce every year.

In 2024, the policy states that 22 percent of a firm's car sales must be zero-emission, rising every year until 2030 when this figure will stand at 80 percent. 

Manufacturers will be slapped with hefty charges for every petrol or diesel vehicle they sell over the threshold which is likely to make firms cautious about overbuilding.

Philip said; “With the UK’s ICE ban deadline U-turn, a palpable lack of help for the sector in the most recent budget, such as the Government addressing the VAT discrepancy between domestic and public charging, it may well be that an unintended consequence of the ZEV mandate could be a drop in the supply of new vehicles.

“Manufacturers looking at the UK market may change tack and opt to put their cars into less stringent markets in other parts of the world.

“It’s still early days, but clarity on how the sector will react in the inaugural year of the mandate has yet to materialise.” 

According to Cox Automotive's Insight Quarterly report, new car registrations were up 10.4 percent year-on-year in Q1. 

However, Philip warned the results were not normal with the data massively behind expectations. 

According to the group, registrations were still a whooping 17.9 percent behind pre-pandemic averages between 2000 and 2019. 

Meanwhile, the current registration figures are 22.2 percent behind the numbers recorded back in 2019.

The experts have claimed a simple way to solve the issue would be to reduce volume across the UK market. 

Philip added: “Double-digit growth in the first three months is no mean feat and cannot be easily dismissed.

“But it trails far behind figures before the pandemic and is, indeed, 22.2 percent behind the figure for 2019 alone.

“So, the numbers are charged with positivity, but the market is a long way off what could reasonably be characterised as normal.”